Socially conservative voters are focused on unseating the president, not on denominational rivalries.
The Iowa caucuses have again produced upheaval. The 2008 contest saw the Huckabee phenomenon and announced the Obama earthquake that toppled the Clinton dynasty.
Now the 2012 caucuses have put former Sen. Rick Santorum near the front of the Republican presidential pack and demonstrated that the “religious right”—Roman Catholic and evangelical social conservatives—is alive and flourishing in the American body politic.
Polling from CNN shows that 57% of Iowa’s caucus participants were self-identified evangelicals, as in 2008, and they voted 32% for Rick Santorum. Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry each received 14% of evangelical votes, with Ron Paul (18%) and Michele Bachmann (6%) taking all but a smattering of the remainder. While Mr. Santorum failed to match Mike Huckabee’s 45% share of the evangelical vote in 2008, he did equal George W. Bush’s 2000 draw.
Mr. Santorum is the truest of true social conservatives. In the House and then in the Senate, he was always willing to fight the battles closest to social conservatives’ hearts, even when he was virtually alone in doing so. His Iowa showing guarantees that the upcoming primaries will offer a great debate between the Republican establishment on one side and the social conservatives and tea party types on the other.
When Iowa caucus participants were asked to identify the most important quality in a candidate, 31% said “Can Beat Obama,” 25% said “True Conservative,” and 24% said “Strong Moral Character.” Almost half of voters (48%) considered Mr. Romney the likeliest to defeat President Obama, while only 13% of voters put Mr. Santorum in that category. When it came to identifying a true conservative, however, 36% chose Mr. Santorum while only 1% chose Mr. Romney.
These polling responses clearly lay out the upcoming challenges for Messrs. Romney and Santorum.
[Editor’s note: This article is incomplete. The source for this document was originally published on online.wsj.com – however, the original URL is no longer available.]
Subscribe to Free “Top 10 Stories” Email
Get the top 10 stories from The Aquila Report in your inbox every Tuesday morning.