Burge came to conclude that “the mainline was dying, and rapidly.” If current trends and aging memberships persist, he expects that in 20 or 30 years “the mainline tradition will largely be extinct across many parts of the United States.” This is the most dramatic of the patterns Burge documents. 

(ANALYSIS) Lots. And no expert is better equipped to portray the turbulence than Washington University political scientist Ryan Burge.

Drawing from extensive survey research and his own previous books and columns for Substack, he offers sweeping, statistics-rich, and notably bleak scenarios in a book out starting Tuesday: “The Vanishing Church.”

The following can only sketch some of the multiple revelations in a work highly recommended for anyone who cares about religion in America.

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And what if you don’t particularly care? Burge insists that when thousands of churches might be shutting down in the coming decades, much is at stake for the entire nation. (That “vanish” in the title is hyperbolic but sorta truthy). 

Accumulating research shows the societal, psychological, economic and even medical benefits from a healthy faith culture. 

One study found that churches are the most important places where people find positive personal connections, “not neighborhoods, schools, or workplaces.” Local churches’ social programs and quiet help to individuals are immeasurably vast, with no conceivable replacement.  

In his latest book, Burge moves beyond scholarly objectivity to express alarm summarized in the subtitle: “How the Hollowing Out of Moderate Congregations Is Hurting Democracy, Faith and Us.” He champions old-fashioned churches that are “moderate, sensible, pragmatic, and unifying.” 

The distorted and polarized political situation gets far more press. Consider Gallup polling data that in 2004, 31% of Americans identified as Independents, spurning the establishment’s two major parties. The latest survey, reported this week, shows Independents are an impressive 45%,  alongside a historically abysmal 27% for both Democrats and Republicans.

Simultaneously, “the growing polarization of American religion has left us lonelier, angrier, sicker, and more divided (both economically and politically) than ever before.” Burge is a well-known analyst of “nones” who tell pollsters they have no religious affiliation or identity. They’ve grown to 28% of Americans in the 21st Century, up from a mere 6% in 1990. 

Millions of moderates who are not “nones” are also uncomfortable with the form of evangelical or “born again” religiosity that now dominates Protestantism. Evangelicals achieved a high of 30% identification among Americans in 1993 but slipped to their more typical 17% by 2020.

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