Nongeographic presbyteries. The strongest response from the executives was that such a change would lead to fragmentation. More than four in five respondents said it would contribute to fragmentation and less connectionalism, and about half said it could lead to rivalries among presbyteries.

The Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.) is abuzz with talk about congregations leaving the denomination, about both unrest and hope for a new direction at the grassroots.

To learn more about what’s happening in the denomination at the local level, and to gather a sense of what to expect in the months ahead, The Presbyterian Outlook developed and distributed a questionnaire to presbytery executives.

To be clear: this initiative is not a scientifically constructed poll but an informal effort to gather information from those involved with ministry at the regional level as the church goes through a difficult time.

With 97 of 173 presbytery executives responding, however, the survey gives a sense of what’s reverberating through the PC(USA) as the General Assembly approaches.

Here’s some of what the presbytery executives had to say.

Departing congregations. Most executives are seeing congregations heading for the exits. Overall, those who responded said more than 7 percent of the congregations under their care either had left the PC(USA) since January 2011 or had entered into discussions to determine whether the congregation wanted to depart. If that percentage holds, it represents a possible loss of about 800 churches.

That departure rate would be consistent with what happened to the 4 million-member Evangelical Lutheran Church in America (ELCA) after it approved the ordination of non-celibate lesbian and gay ministers in August 2009. The ELCA has since suffered the loss of 621 churches — 7 percent of congregations and 7 percent of baptized members — according to Melissa Ramirez Cooper, spokesperson for the ELCA.

Also, more than 200 new congregations have been formed out of members who left ELCA churches that had not separated from the denomination. Most of the churches that either left the ELCA or were newly organized by departing ELCA members have joined one of two newly formed denominations, the North American Lutheran Church and the Lutheran Congregations in Mission for Christ.

In the PC(USA), membership losses are still an evolving picture. It was less than a year ago that — by a vote of a majority of presbyteries — the denomination dropped its prohibition on ordaining sexually active gays and lesbians.

The PC(USA) losses are concentrated in several regions, with several executives saying few or no congregations have left or initiated conversations, and others citing figures of 10 or 20 or 35 percent or more.

Overall, the executives who responded reported an average loss of members (leaving either individually or as part of a departing congregation) of just under 5 percent so far. But they anticipate losing more — on average, an additional 11 percent — over the next two years as the denomination contemplates approving same-gender marriage. That would amount to a total loss of as many as 320,000 members in two to three years.

In other words, the losses the PC(USA) is experiencing now may continue in the months to come, as more congregations work through the process of discerning whether to stay in the PC(USA) or leave for the Evangelical Presbyterian Church (EPC), for ECO: A Covenant Order of Evangelical Presbyterians (a new denomination just forming), or for some other destination.

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