“The 2014 report projects depletion of the combined Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance trust funds in 2033. Social Security has no borrowing authority, and after the trust funds are exhausted there is only enough payroll tax revenue to cover a projected 77 percent of benefits; meaning future benefit payments must be reduced by about 23 percent. But the resulting cut in benefits will actually be much worse for retirees, workers and the economy if we don’t act now to reform Social Security.”

The latest Social Security Trustees’ report shows the projected dates of insolvency for the program’s trust funds remain largely unchanged. Regrettably, some misinterpret this as an indication that Social Security doesn’t require immediate reform. Make no mistake: There is a Social Security crisis.

Misunderstanding the critical state of the program’s financial health will lead to grave consequences for all of the program’s beneficiaries — both current and future.

The 2014 report projects depletion of the combined Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance trust funds in 2033. Social Security has no borrowing authority, and after the trust funds are exhausted there is only enough payroll tax revenue to cover a projected 77 percent of benefits; meaning future benefit payments must be reduced by about 23 percent. But the resulting cut in benefits will actually be much worse for retirees, workers and the economy if we don’t act now to reform Social Security.

In 2013, total benefit costs offset by taxes on those benefits, plus administrative expenses, came to $832 billion. Most, but not all, of this cost was covered by payroll taxes ($726 billion), with the balance substantially covered by interest ($103 billion) on money Congress “borrowed” from the trust funds — which means Social Security is currently adding to the deficit.

When the trust funds are depleted, the upcoming year’s benefits will be suddenly and immediately reduced by nearly $200 billion (in 2013 dollars), and not just for that year alone. The 23 percent haircut will persist indefinitely without legislative action. Gross Domestic Product includes government outlays, including spending on entitlement programs. Hence, less social security spending by definition results in a smaller GDP. Additionally, a sudden and large reduction of social security benefits would also result in less private consumption, since beneficiaries will have less money to spend, and this too would presumably result in an additional corresponding negative effect on GDP.

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