For all that what on earth is “settled science” anyway? It used be “settled science” that the earth as the center of the known universe. Then Newtonian physics was “settled science” and so on. It seems to me that “settled science” is an oxymoron. Hawking was sure that certain things could not be true of black holes until he was sure that they were true.

I first became aware of the story of the frog in the kettle when I read George Barna’s 1990 book, The Frog in the Kettle: What the Christian Community Needs to Know About Life in the Year 2000 (Ventura, CA.: Regal Books, 1990). I do not remember whether Barna presented it as a parable or as fact. I do remember, however, that it seemed to be grounded in reality. The point of the story was to illustrate how the church is in danger of accommodating gradually, imperceptibly, unconsciously to gradual cultural shifts until, like the frog in the proverbial pot, the church dies. According to the story a scientist placed a frog in a pot of water and turned up the temperature so gradually that the frog is eventually boiled to death.The book was well and widely received and was reprinted and republished over the years, even with a new title. The story or parable of the frog in the kettle became conventional wisdom, a “go-to” illustration for writers and preachers. It became something that every knew or thought they did.

Then, a few years ago, I read something that said, in effect, “Do you remember that story about the frog in the kettle? That’s not true. It is a myth.” I was given the strong impression that this is what all the intelligent people think or know now. I also remember thinking that it was too bad because it was an effective illustration of what seems (now) like a truth, that it is possible to be influenced unawares by one’s surrounding to a bad end. More recently I came across the story again. This time the writer seemed to be assuming that the story was factual and even made reference to a nineteenth-century experiment. I thought, “wait a minute. Does not this person know that the new received wisdom is that the frog-in-the-kettle story is a myth? If the story was based on an actual scientific experiment why is it false?” So, I began to poke around a little (short of actually trying myself to boil a frog) to try to see if I could determine the truth of the matter.

One of the first pieces I discovered was by the journalist James Fallows in The Atlantic: “The Boiled Frog Myth: Stop The Lying Now!” (September 16, 2006). Therein he writes,

Here’s the problem. It just isn’t true. If you throw a frog into a pot of boiling water, it will (unfortunately) be hurt pretty badly before it manages to get out — if it can. And if you put it into a pot of tepid water and then turn on the heat, it will scramble out as soon as it gets uncomfortably warm.

How do I know? Let’s just say that, as with global warming, the scientific evidence is all on one side of this one. Fast Company magazine did an admirable early myth-busting story on the topic in its very first issue, more than a decade ago. The best quote (of many good ones) in the article was from the Curator of Reptiles and Amphibians at the National Museum of Natural History, who when asked about the boiled-frog story said: “Well that’s, may I say, bull****.” There is much more to the same effect, eg here. The most interesting scientific report is on Google Answers, in response to a request for a “biologically valid” example of animal behavior that would illustrate the same point.

Fallows asserts the truth of his opinion quite strongly. Rhetorically he raises the stakes by putting his claim in bold typeface. He follows with an implied threat of social marginalization: anyone who disagrees with my claim is no better than those know-nothings  who dare question “global warming” (the politically correct terminology had not yet shifted, in 2006, to the rather more conveniently vague “climate change”). The first article linked no longer seems to exist even if the magazine still does. The second is now a Wikipedia entry entitled “frogs in culture.” There is now a page devoted to this story, which provides links examples of uses but also to some of the older scientific literature to which we shall return. The strongest evidence for his claim comes from an old “Google Answers” page from August-September, 2006, in writers appeal to a quote from the now-defunct Fast Company, article which quoted a curator of reptiles and amphibians at the National Museum of Natural History. In other words, Two of the authorities to which Fallows appealed were essentially the same thing. The appearance, however, is created (as with the appeal to authority by “scientific consensus” in the claim that 97% of all climate scientists agree regarding “global warming” or “climate change.”

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