You can guard against believing and spreading bad statistics by determining if its source is a promotional piece, if it cannot possibly be verified scientifically, and if it does not line up with reality. Then, if it is quality research, quote away. Anything else is just spreading misinformation.

Often times, a statistic is like a piece of candy thrown at a parade—you really don’t know if you should bite into it or not. We’ve all heard Mark Twain’s famous quote about lies and statistics. There is a reason so many people have had skepticism toward stats. Too frequently, people repeat inaccurate, bad, or explicitly made-up numbers.

I’ve written about the issue before—on many occasions. Here at the blog, you can read about a lot about stats, including specifics about bad marriage stats and why we like bad stats in general.

Still, I keep hearing statistics quoted at conferences and through blogs and social media that make me scratch my head in amazement. I’m not sure where some of these stats originate, and I’m the president of LifeWay Research.

So how can you really discern good stats from bad?

1. Be Wary of Statistics in Promotions

First, be skeptical of stats in promotional pieces. They are trying to convince you to consume an ideology or a product. Advertisers do not hold to the same standards as a researcher.

Statistics are effective at moving people toward action, but it can border on manipulation, depending on how you use or change the numbers and information. Using unverified statistics can be an example. Even if the action is good, it is not acceptable to use a statistic that is not valid.

For example, maybe you’ve heard of books that say the church is dying—and this book can fix it (Yet the numbers show that the church is not dying). Or, that 80% of church plants fail—and this conference can stop that (yet, about two-thirds of church plants are around in four years after starting).

You’ve probably heard someone say the stats show that pastors are miserable and just want to quit—and our ministry saves them (when the vast majority are happy andconsider it a privilege to serve). Or that the Super Bowl is the biggest sex trafficking event in history—and you should support our ministry to stop it (when there is no law enforcement evidence that this is true).

All of these things are important: we need the church to thrive, church plants to be successful, pastors to be happy, and sex trafficking to end. But we don’t need made up facts to evidence the situation and the need.

2. Be Wary of Stats that Cannot be Verified Scientifically

Secondly, is there really a way to know the fact claimed? In other words, you should always ask “How do you know that?” when someone quotes a statistic.

For example, we have heard that 94% of evangelical youth drop out of church after high school never to return. The three words “never to return” should raise red flags. How could anyone know that?

Realistically, how could they keep track of those 94%? Did a researcher track them their whole lives or implant them with transponders and see if they come back?

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