As Philip Jenkin’s reminds us, “While religions might sicken and fade, they do not die on their own accord: they must be killed.” To be sure, evangelicals in Eastern Ukraine have been killed.  Yet they are not daunted by this reality. They continue to courageously serve the people of Ukraine by serving food, providing shelter, and assisting in evacuations. More importantly, they continue to preach the gospel in faith, hope, and love.

According to the ancient Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu, “There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare.” History has proven Tzu right in nearly every decade since he first wrote the Art of War around the 5^th century B.C. Unfortunately, his sage advice is seldom taken.

President Biden is a prime example of ignoring Tzu’s advice. At the NATO Summit in Madrid this year, Mr. Biden was asked “how long will America continue to support the war in Ukraine?” He responded, “As long as it takes.”

In May Biden signed legislation to send $40 billion in US assistance to Ukraine to further prolong the war.

This disregards another warning from Sun Tzu, “If the campaign is protracted, the resources of the state will not be equal to the strain.” With America’s other severe economic woes it will soon be out of resources, and Americans are already feeling the strain.

Therefore, it’s important for American citizens to ask, “How will this war end? And what will it look like once it’s over?”

Answering these questions requires intellectual honesty—something severely lacking in the propaganda from this administration, and from the corporate media who seem happy to see the war go on indefinitely.

By Ukraine’s own admission, they are losing between 100 and 200 soldiers per day due to Russian artillery attacks. Another 500 per day are wounded and unable to return to battle, and there are whispers of widespread desertions among shell shocked Ukrainian solders.

Furthermore, Ukraine is using up ammunition faster than American and NATO manufactures can replace it. At this rate the war will soon become unsustainable for Ukraine and its allies in the West. On the other side, Russia still has a large inventory of rockets and artillery shells, and their factories are running day and night to resupply their stockpiles.

To speak plainly, Ukraine’s only option is to negotiate with Russia understanding that they are going to lose most of the territory the Federation has already conquered. Additionally, Ukraine must agree to remain a neutral buffer state, and withdraw its application to become a NATO and EU member. Realistically, there is no other off-ramp for Ukraine.

If Ukraine refuses these terms then it risks further destruction by Russia’s artillery, and indirectly by America’s stubborn unwillingness to take any of Russia’s security concerns seriously. It’s an ugly reality, but it’s the only reality Ukraine has right now.

To the surprise of many in the West, despite the mainstream media’s reporting to the contrary, Russia will likely fare much better than predicted once the war is over. At present, the sanctions have had very little impact on Russia’s economy (except perhaps in the technology sector), and they are unlikely to have any significant effect in the future.

The world’s need for oil, gas, and grain will almost certainly bode well for Russia’s financial future. The growing BRICS economic partnership between Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa will further solidify Russia’s economic independence from the woke globalists in the West, and other nations are likely to join the partnership. In the end, the United States will have failed in its quest to severely weaken the Russian Federation and/or replace Putin.

On the other hand, should the war continue much longer, the US will find it hard to keep the alliance together come winter. By that time, the cold reality will have set in for the Europeans who have been dependent on Russian oil and gas, and already decreased imports by 40 percent. Public pressure will force politicians to normalize trade relations with Russia, or those leaders will find themselves being replaced by others who recognize that NATO’s policies for Ukraine are bad for domestic politics at home.

The mere possibility of the streets in Europe resembling those in Sri Lanka should be enough to make the ruling class nervous in places like France, Germany, and Italy who were hesitant to get involved in the war in the first place. America may soon see other NATO members begin to back away from Biden’s “as long as it takes,” promise.

Should the United States and Europe not change course, inflation, while not caused by the war, will continue to be aggravated by it. Gas and food prices will fluctuate, but steadily rise. The supply chain will continue to be bottlenecked, and the poorest nations of the world will suffer the most. Wages will remain stagnated, and a deep and long recession is almost certain. Even the most idealistic statesmen cannot long ignore these realities without unrest amongst their citizens.

This prognostication, of course, is based on the assumption that America and NATO will not be foolish enough to escalate the conflict by putting troops on the ground in Ukraine, or try to enforce a no fly zone over its air space. Although, some in Washington are encouraging the President to take exactly that kind of action. If a hot war erupts between Russia and the United States no one can predict what may happen, but everyone can imagine the worst case scenario if two nuclear powers go head to head. The potential for calamity, whether intentional or by accident, increases proportionately each day the war is prolonged.

However, in the absence of direct intervention by America and NATO, this war will end exactly where it started. As Andrew Lantham predicts, whenever the war is finally over, Ukraine will be forced to negotiate exactly the same kind of settlement that Russia was offering on February 23, 2022. Russia will keep most of the territories it conquered in the Donbas region, the Azov coast, and Crimea. Ukraine will agree to neutrality, and not seek NATO or EU membership. The war will have accomplished nothing for Ukraine or NATO making it unlikely that President Zelensky can survive the outcome politically.

Ukraine had little to say about getting into this war. Sadly, they will likely have less to say about ending it.

G. K. Chesterton once wrote that, “War is not the best way of settling differences; it is the only way of preventing their being settled for you.” In this case, however, Ukraine will be unlikely to prevent others from settling things for them once this war is over.

The end of the war may also mean the end of evangelicalism as we have come to know it in Ukraine. Once considered the “Bible Belt,” and the “Eastern Europe’s Evangelical Hub,” it’s probable that Eastern Ukraine will resemble little more than an evangelical ghost town after the war.

As Philip Jenkin’s reminds us, “While religions might sicken and fade, they do not die on their own accord: they must be killed.” To be sure, evangelicals in Eastern Ukraine have been killed.

Yet, they are not daunted by this reality. They continue to courageously serve the people of Ukraine by serving food, providing shelter, and assisting in evacuations. More importantly, they continue to preach the gospel in faith, hope, and love.

However, evangelicals will have to settle for a purely spiritual victory as all the material gains they’ve made these past 30 years will be lost once the war is over.

As Senator Richard Black (R) of Virginia has said, “The decision for war was made in Washington, the decision to attack was made in Russia. But once we made the decision to go to war, the decision to attack was inevitable.”

The decision for peace, however, is not inevitable.

What Americans need to realize is that both Russia and US are apparently willing to sacrifice Ukraine to achieve their own geostrategic objectives. And contrary to conventional wisdom, a war of attrition favors Russia, not America and other NATO-member countries.

Jim Fitzgerald is a minister in the Presbyterian Church in America and a missionary in the Middle East and North Africa.