O15 was one of three overtures presbyteries considered in 2022-23 on the topic of sexuality. Overture 29 (O29) and Overture 31 (O31) passed in a supermajority of presbyteries and will come to the floor of GA this summer, where a simple majority vote of commissioners will amend the BCO with their language. Two sexuality overtures—Overture 23 (O23) and Overture 37 (O37)—failed to reach the two-thirds threshold in 2021-22.

With the Presbyterian Church in America’s 2023 General Assembly quickly approaching, I thought I’d take one final look at the presbytery votes on Overture 15 (O15). In total, 81 presbyteries have recorded votes on O15, with the overture receiving a majority vote in 48 presbyteries, 11 shy of the two-thirds threshold needed to bring O15 to the floor of GA this June.

Comparing O15 votes to last year’s sexuality overtures

O15 was one of three overtures presbyteries considered in 2022-23 on the topic of sexuality. Overture 29 (O29) and Overture 31 (O31) passed in a supermajority of presbyteries and will come to the floor of GA this summer, where a simple majority vote of commissioners will amend the BCO with their language. Two sexuality overtures—Overture 23 (O23) and Overture 37 (O37)—failed to reach the two-thirds threshold in 2021-22.

A scatter plot is a helpful graph for quickly considering how a vote on one overture compared to a vote on another overture. The figure below plots six scatterplots, with each dot representing a presbytery. Presbytery votes on the 2021-22 overtures are plotted on the horizontal y-axis: O23 in the first column and O37 in the second column. Presbytery votes on the 2022-23 overtures are plotted on the vertical y-axis: O31 in the first row, O29 in the second row, and O15 in the third row. The red diagonal line indicates parity; presbyteries falling on this line voted exactly the same on one of last year’s overtures as they did on one of this year’s. Presbyteries above this line had a greater percentage of officers supporting one of this year’s overtures relative to either of last year’s overtures.

Two quadrants are of greatest interest. The top left quadrant (with green dots) plot presbyteries that voted against an overture last year, but flipped to support it this year. The bottom right quadrant (with red dots) plots presbyteries that voted in favor of an overture last year, but flipped to oppose it this year.

By the number of green dots, it is clear that O29 and O31 were highly regarded, even by presbyteries voting against sexuality overtures last year. With only one exception (Platte Valley, which passed O37 last year but did not pass O31 this year), presbyteries either had the same outcome or flipped to support this year’s overtures.

O15 did not follow the same pattern as O29 and O31. Presbyteries landed much closer to the parity line, indicating that many voted on O15 similarly to how they voted last year. The plot also features a mix of green and red dots, revealing that there were many presbyteries that changed their vote from last year’s overtures to O15.

A Sankey plot is useful for visualizing trends for how presbyteries may have shifted votes. It shows the proportion of presbyteries passing sexuality overtures in each year, as well as the paths presbyteries took from year to year. The plot below shows that votes on O15 were largely predictable. Presbyteries that supported both O23 and O37 last year tended to pass O15, while those that opposed both O23 and O37 tended not to pass O15.

Minority Report signers and recorded negative votes

Previously for The Aquila Report, I examined O15’s progress based on commissioners who recorded negative votes against O15 at PCA GA 2022, as well as commissioners on the Overtures Committee who signed the Minority Report that brought O15 to the floor of GA. The bar graph below replicates my previous analysis, but with final data.

Over four-fifths of presbyteries with Minority Report signers (in favor of O15) passed O15, while just less than half of presbyteries without a Minority Report signer passed O15. In contrast, just less than half of presbyteries with a recorded negative vote (against O15) passed O15, while four-fifths of presbyteries without a recorded negative vote passed O15. The data, in my opinion, reveals two competing opinions within the PCA on whether the sexuality issue among ordained officers has been resolved.

Looking ahead to GA 2023

This summer, the Overtures Committee will consider five overtures that take up the issue of sexuality.

1. Overture 9 from Arizona Presbytery would amend the BCO by adding the following paragraph to Chapter 7: “Men who deviate–whether by declared conviction, self-description, lifestyle decisions, or overt practice–from God’s creational intention for human sexuality are disqualified from holding office in the Presbyterian Church in America.”
2. Overture 16 from Catawba Valley Presbytery would amend the BCO by adding the following paragraph to Chapter 7: “Men who describe themselves by any biblical sin (such as listed in 1 Cor. 6:9-10, ‘Do not be deceived. Neither fornicators, nor idolaters, nor adulterers, nor homosexuals, nor sodomites, nor thieves, nor covetous, nor drunkards, nor revilers, nor extortioners will inherit the kingdom of God.’) are disqualified from holding office in the Presbyterian Church in America. Instead, they describe themselves by 1 Cor. 6:11, ‘And such were some of you. But you were washed, but you were sanctified, but you were justified in the name of the Lord Jesus and by the Spirit of our God.’”
3. Overture 17 from the Session of Meadowview Reformed Presbyterian Church would amend the BCO by adding the following paragraph to Chapter 7: “Men who refer to a particular sin struggle as descriptive of their personhood, being, or identity are disqualified from holding office in the PCA.”
4. Overture 23 from Mississippi Valley Presbytery would amend the BCO by adding the following line to 8-2: “He should conform to the biblical requirement of chastity and sexual purity in his descriptions of himself, his convictions, character, and conduct”; and the following line to 9-3: “conforming to the biblical requirement of chastity and sexual purity in their descriptions of themselves, their convictions, character, and conduct.”
5. And finally, Overture 24 from Chesapeake Presbytery would amend the BCO by adding the following line to 8-3: “As those who are to be examples to God’s flock that is under their care, and who are to watch their life and doctrine closely, elders are to understand, describe, and define themselves in light of their union with Christ as justified and holy children of God. They are to guard against setting a damaging or confusing example to the flock by describing or defining themselves by their sinful desires (e.g., from 1 Corinthians 6:9,10 (ESV)… ‘the sexually immoral, nor idolators, nor adulterers, nor men who practice homosexuality, nor thieves, nor drunkards, nor revilers, nor swindlers,…’ etc.), but rather are to endeavor by the grace of God to confess, repent of, and mortify sin and sinful desires, and to present themselves and those entrusted to their care as instruments of righteousness to God.”

Overtures 9, 16, and 17 follow the pattern of O15 this past year by seeking to add a paragraph to BCO 7. Pray for the men of the Overtures Committee (as well as the PCA!) as they take up these matters in June.

Matthew Lee is a ruling elder at Covenant Presbyterian Church (PCA) in Fayetteville, AR.