So what will be the end of the matter, if end there be? Maybe cries of “Make presbyterianism boring again!” will reverberate in the cavernous GA hall as presbyters long for the day when some of these controversies are behind them.

Please forgive the fact that all of these very personal and very fallible prognostications concern the Presbyterian Church in America, which is, for better or worse, the 800-pound primate in the conservative Reformed room. Sturm und drang cloud the horizon as the personal becomes ecclesial and political, cultural warfare causes collateral damage in the church, and issues of identity (both human and denominational) perplex us. The following predictions are not pretty:

1. Thrown Into Confusion

PCA Overture 37 will fail to receive the requisite two-thirds vote of the presbyteries to bring it before the 2022 PCA General Assembly for final approval. And Overture 23 (which, like 37, concerns same-sex-attracted church officers) will pass or fail by a narrow margin of 1-5 presbyteries. This will confuse outsiders and PCA members, and it will confuse PCA sessions who are on the fence about their churches’ future in the PCA. Adding further confusion will be a raft of replacement overtures if both 23 and 37 fail. The outcome of the overtures votes and the prospect of prolonged conflict will prompt…

2. Reaffiliations and Rumors of Reaffiliations

There will be a few prominent and influential churches that will reaffiliate or begin the process of reaffiliation in 2022. However, it will likely be unclear until at least 2023 whether these leavers are lone (or local) dominoes, or are the sort that will lead to a larger and more consequential chain reaction—an exodus. The same forces that are driving churches from the Southern Baptist Convention and are causing splits in the Reformed Church in America and United Methodist Church can also be assumed to act on the PCA, though probably in slower and subtler ways. Those who might leave the PCA sooner rather than later over Revoice-related issues should reconsider because…

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